Yes, betting lines move all the freaking time. Individually, you would have to risk a lot on these teams to make any meaningful profits, but having them parlayed decreases the juice increases the odds all the way up to +130. Obviously upsets do happen, as the previous section detailed, but another way to be profitable long-term betting on moneylines is to parlay heavy favorites together.Īgain, it is on the bettor to decide which heavy favorites aren’t on upset alert, but parlaying 3-4 favorites can make the odds much more palatable by removing the juice or even getting plus money odds.Ībove shows 4 teams that are heavy favorites to win. Yes! This is another strategy that was referenced earlier. Despite that, if you had blindly bet $100 on each moneyline underdog you would have profited $552. Take week 1 of the 2020 NFL season for example, underdogs went 6-7. There are always going to be upsets, and if you identify which underdogs you think you are going to win you won’t need to even win half of your bets to profit. And not just for the NFL, but for every sport. Everybody has heard the term “anything can happen on any given Sunday”, and while that might sound like a cliche, it holds true. While there are some scenarios in which it might be worth it to bet on a heavy favorite, the easiest way to profit over time on straight up moneyline bets is to bet on “plus money” underdogs. Conversely, if you bet on 3 underdogs at +200 odds you only need one of those bets to hit in order to breakeven. This means if you bet on 4 favorites at -300 odds you would need to win 3 of those 4 bets just to break even. It might sound counterintuitive to advise against betting on favorites, but the goal of sports gambling is to make money, NOT to win the highest % of bets.įor example, if you are betting on a favorite at -300 odds, using the OddsJam Odds Converter Calculator that bet has an implied winning percentage of 75%. We’ll get to parlaying them together in another section. As a general rule of thumb, it is not advisable to consistently be betting on huge favorites straight up. There are plenty of strategies surrounding when and how to bet moneylines. Let’s choose a different game where the odds aren’t as dramatic. Generally, sportsbooks are going to have higher juice on the favorite because they understand the psyche of a bettor is to want to bet on the favorites. It is essentially the difference between the two moneyline odds. And yes, there is juice in moneyline bets. What is the Juice in Moneyline?Īs detailed in our article on juice in sports betting, juice is essentially the tax that sportsbooks charge on a given bet to ensure they remain profitable. The overall return would be $171.43, since a win returns your stake.Ī -140 bet has a mathematical probability of 58.33% to hit. A $100 risk at these odds would profit $71.43, which would be your profit. In this scenario, you’d be betting on a favorite in, so you’d win less money than you risk. What Happens if You Bet $100 on a -140 Moneyline? This means that you would need to risk $28.57 to profit $100 with the +350 odds. So if you want to bet $50 on the Texans, the formula would be the below. Multiply your wager by (moneyline odds / 100), OR divide the amount you want to win by (100 / moneyline odds). There are two ways to calculate the odds for an underdog, depending on what number you want to get – the amount you will win based on a wager, or how much you need to wager to win a specific amount. So, you would need to risk $237.50 on the Chargers moneyline at -475 odds to profit $50. So, for that Chargers -475 example, let’s say you want to win $50. Multiply the amount you want to win by (moneyline odds / 100) But, if you want to know the formula for favorites and underdogs behind the odds please see below. No matter which sportsbook you use they will always make the calculations easy for you to read.
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